Will What's Happened to Music Happen To Movies?
First, you must believe the postulation that picture follows audio. What do I mean by that? I mean that audio workflows digitised long before movies, just as the audio CD predates the DVD, audio tape predates video tape, etc
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So the movies future is probably in your front room, what today is called home cinema. The cinemas themselves will no doubt continue to exist, just as theatre, radio and books do today. Is the AppleTV perhaps a precursor to that day, albeit in laughably low-resolution to keep file download sizes sane for today's broadband connections.
How does an indie moviemaker survive in that climate, yet alone see success coming anywhere near to an eighties blockbuster?
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Apple may become a movie distributor. Typically today big movies are not made without an assured distribution deal or completion bond. Self publishing will remain an option, but will remain niche, hobbyist and vanity as it does today. Distributors understand marketing. Apple understand marketing.
So content creation is available to all. So what.
Distribution is available to all. So what.
Marketing is available to all. Is it?
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What I take away from this decade old short brain-dump, what I still see all around me, is that indie filmmakers still do not understand the importance of intelligent marketing - if you want to be an indie filmmaker today and haven't got lucky yet I'd recommend delving into psychology which segues nicely with marketing. Or partner with someone who does understand marketing and the absolute slog behind it.